Rowing Machine NerdRowing Time Predictor
Enter one rowing result - your 2k, a recent 5k, anything - and this tool predicts your time over every other distance, plus how far you'd go in a 30- or 60-minute piece. It uses Paul's Law, the established rowing relationship between distance and time.
| Distance | Predicted time | /500m split |
|---|---|---|
| 500m | 1:44 | 1:43.5 |
| 1,000m | 3:36 | 1:47.9 |
| 2,000myour input | 7:30 | 1:52.5 |
| 5,000m | 19:49 | 1:58.9 |
| 6,000m | 24:02 | 2:00.2 |
| 10,000m | 41:18 | 2:03.9 |
| Half marathon | 91:08 | 2:09.6 |
| Marathon | 189:60 | 2:15.1 |
| 30-minute row | 7,396m | 2:01.7 |
| 60-minute row | 14,223m | 2:06.6 |
How the rowing time predictor works
It uses Paul's Law, the well-known rowing rule that time scales with distance raised to the power of about 1.06: predicted time = your time × (new distance ÷ your distance)1.06. The exponent above 1 captures the fact that you can't hold your short-distance pace forever - every doubling of distance costs a little more than double the time, which is why your 5k split is slower than your 2k.
Treat the numbers as well-grounded estimates, most accurate near your known distance and for a similarly trained rower. A marathon predicted from a 500m sprint will be optimistic, because endurance varies far more between rowers than raw speed does.
Put your predictions to work
Use a predicted time as a pacing target: see our 2k pacing guide, turn a target into training splits with the pace zones calculator, or look up any pace in detail on the pace chart. To see how a time ranks, try the 2k percentile calculator.
References
- Pace and Watts Calculators - Concept2
- Understanding Splits - Concept2
Frequently asked questions
- How do you predict rowing times across distances?
- Using Paul's Law, the established rowing relationship where time scales with distance to the power of about 1.06: predicted time = your time × (new distance ÷ your distance)^1.06. Doubling the distance takes a bit more than double the time.
- How accurate is the prediction?
- It's a solid estimate for distances reasonably close to your known result and for a similarly trained rower. Predictions far outside your usual range (e.g. a marathon from a 500m) are rougher, because endurance and pacing vary between athletes.
- What's a good 5k time from my 2k?
- As a rule of thumb your 5k split is roughly 8-12 seconds slower per 500m than your 2k split. This tool gives you the exact predicted 5k time from your 2k result.
Jordan Lockwood (BSc, CPT)
Certified personal trainer (CPT), sports-science graduate, and lifelong rower. Jordan writes and reviews every guide on Rowing Machine Nerd.